Studies for power generation and transmission expansion planning begin with medium and long term (five to ten years horizon) energy demand projections in different consumer classes. In order to attain this goal, Cepel, within the scope of the Department for Energy Optimization and the Environment (DEA), developed along with Eletrobras' Department for Energy Studies the PREVMERCADO project, a methodology based on econometric models to predict the total electricity consumption and by consumption class for Brazil, States and the electricity utilities. The consumption forecasts are based on macroeconomic scenarios and demographic predictions for a ten-year planning horizon. The methodology used by PREVMERCADO to forecast the electricity consumption in residential class is illustrated if Figure 1. It is based on Brazilian Census Data, National Household Sample Survey micro data, population projection, income distribution, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and energy conservation scenarios. An example of result from this methodology is presented in Figure 2, that shows the monthly mean consumption by household for four energy conservation scenarios. Next, Figure 3 shows the total yearly consumption in residential class for the same energy conservation scenarios.
Figure 1. Methodology to predict the electricity consumption in residential class
Figure 2. Impact of energy conservation scenarios on the monthly mean consumption by household
Figure 3. Impact of energy conservation scenarios on the total electriciy consumption in residential class
This methodology aims to provide the following results:
• Project the number of urban and rural households and number of residential customers on the medium and long terms.
• Breakdown the GDP projection by Brazilian region into 16 sectors of economic activity.
• Project the future Brazilian electricity market by regions and Federation Units in a ten-year horizon, for the following classes: residential, commercial/services, rural, public authorities, public lighting, public services and own consumption.
• Market consolidation and load forecast for a ten-year horizon.
• Support studies to define the amount of energy contracted in auctions
• Support reviews of electricity tariffs of distribution utilities
• Provide information for the development of public policies in the electricity sector.
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